DTN Midday Livestock Comments          07/15 11:42

   Cattle Futures Surge Tuesday

   Despite early trade uncertainty Tuesday morning, buyers quickly moved back 
into cattle futures, focusing on continued underlying strength in all markets. 
Early buying is likely to help sustain late day support through all cattle 
trade.

Rick Kment
DTN Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Livestock futures have posted active gains Tuesday morning as cattle futures 
have quickly bounced back from early week losses as traders continue to focus 
on the ability to sustain and potentially expand the cash cattle market support 
seen last week. Triple-digit gains are seen in both live cattle and feeder 
cattle futures with nearby feeder cattle leading the shift higher with gains 
nearly $2.50 per cwt at midday. Lean hog futures are mixed to mostly lower, but 
for the most part, traders seem to be steadily focused on the direction and 
activity levels in the cattle complex. December corn is up 3 1/4 at $4.213 and 
December soybean meal is down $1.90 at $279.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 
is down 312.91 at 44,146.74.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Live cattle futures have rallied higher Tuesday morning despite an uncertain 
start in the early minutes of trade. Active triple-digit gains are seen in all 
live cattle futures with spot month August futures leading the market higher 
holding a $2.70 per cwt rally. Although, the August contract is technically 
leading the market higher, the focus on October and December contracts 
approaching $2 per cwt gains at midday is the main driver of the renewed market 
support. Any pressure seen on Monday in the complex seems to have at least 
temporarily been eased, with traders looking for continued support in both beef 
values and cash cattle trade at the end of the week. Trade is likely to remain 
stable but generally slow through the rest of the trading session, likely 
limiting any additional widespread market shifts. Cash cattle markets remain 
very slow to start Tuesday morning.

   Bids and asking prices are not established as of yet. Significant trade 
volume will likely be delayed until well into the second half of the week. 
August live cattle are $2.53 higher at $221.875, October live cattle are $1.75 
higher at $218.525, December live cattle are $1.55 higher at $219.00. Boxed 
beef prices are higher: choice up $1.46 ($378.53) and select up $2.03 ($366.61) 
with a movement of 83.82 loads (64.65 loads of choice, 13.27 loads of select, 
zero loads of trim and 5.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   Feeder cattle have rallied higher Tuesday morning with all contracts through 
March 2026 now trading at $2 per cwt higher or above as strong underlying 
support has helped move the feeder cattle price above the $320 per cwt levels. 
The ability to sustain prices at or above this level will not only likely spark 
additional underlying futures market support but could create additional 
fundamental support through the entire complex over the near future. August 
feeders are $2.38 higher at $321.85, September feeders are $2.10 higher at 
$321.675 and October feeders are $2.05 higher at $319.75.

LEAN HOGS:

   Lean hog futures are sluggish Tuesday with most, if not all, of the 
attention being diverted to the cattle complex through morning trade. July 
futures remain positive with a 15 cent per cwt gain, but the underlying 
concerns surrounding potential tariff levels and unknowns of how this will 
impact long-term trade is putting pressure on fall and winter contract price 
levels. October futures are leading the market lower for nearby trade activity 
with a $1 per cwt loss at midday. This constitutes not only falling market 
pressure but widens the spread between front month futures and deferred prices. 
Currently there remains a $20 per cwt discount in the October contracts, and 
$28 per cwt discount to December futures. This market difference is accounting 
for the uncertainty in global pork demand met by U.S. production, and not any 
sizable shift in overall hog supplies over the upcoming months.

   July lean hogs are $0.15 higher at $106.85, August lean hogs are $0.08 lower 
at $103.15 and October lean hogs are $1.03 lower at $86.65. Hog prices are 
higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $4.32 with a weighted average 
of $110.36, ranging from $99.00 to $113.50 on 4,015 head with a five-day 
rolling average of $111.20. Pork cutouts totaled 156.84 loads with 148.24 loads 
of pork cuts and 8.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.50 at 
$113.58.




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