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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/17 11:06

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans are the downside leader at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 35 points lower. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 2 points lower. Energies 
are narrowly mixed. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold down $1.00. 


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower with spillover pressure from the soybeans 
turning action lower after light early gains. The western belt should be more 
open in the near term with the central part looking more open, and most rains 
concentrated to the east. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 14,000 
barrels per day, with stocks down another 514,000 barrels, with ethanol futures 
flat to slightly lower afterwards. South American harvest should continue to 
move along at a good clip. On the May nearby chart support is the recent low at 
$3.55 then $3.52, with the 10-day at $3.61 nearby resistance, and then the 
20-day at $3.66. 


   Soybean trade is 8 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade looking like it 
wants to set up a test of the lows after light early buying evaporated with 
little fresh news. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points 
lower. Crush margins have faded this week with basis trying to firm in spots of 
the central U.S. Brazil harvest is 88% complete with harvest pressure from 
South America likely to fade soon, while the ral and peso remain cheap vs. the 
dollar. Concrete trade progress remains lacking as well, but negotiations are 
continuing. On the May chart support is the recent low at $8.79, and then the 
six-month low at $8.71, with resistance clustered in the $8.99 to $9.09 range.


   Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher with light profit taking on 
the winter wheats after the early week sell off. Europe and the Black Sea area 
will be watched closely for further rains, with a mixed start to the year. The 
U.S. High Plains look drier in the near term, but moisture is very good for the 
moment with higher temps to boost growth, with progress in the north likely to 
remain behind pace but should be more open. The dollar remains in the upper end 
of the range. Russian estimates for this crop year indicate at rebound from 
71-72 million metric tons to 83-84 million metric tons. On the May Kansas City 
chart, support the fresh lows at $4.14, with the lower Bollinger band at $4.17, 
and resistance the 10-day at $4.29. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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